It faces immediate resistance at $1,800, a confluence of channel resistances of its present intermediate channel and its major channel post-2001.
That's it for now. Back to prepping for my paper.
Market Redux charts my views on financial markets and chronicles some of my tactical market trades in an ongoing journey to understand the constantly evolving market landscape.
Since 2001, gold has traded within a strong rising channel (in green) as charted below. Ideally, I'd like to see gold correct to the floor of this channel ($1300). However, I think the odds of this is low. More likely is the test of the confluence of its present intermediate trendline and 150 days moving average, $1450, which is a good spot for purchase.
From that entry level, it has 20% immediate upside, which is $1700, a confluence of its channel resistance above and fibonacci arc measured from 2001 as charted below.
COT positioning also reveals the speculative froth has been erased from the gold futures market as large speculators are holding relatively lighter long positions and commercials holding relatively lighter short positions.Let's continue to watch developments closely with the magic number $1450 in mind.
The outlook over the next 2 years remains bright for gold as rising long Treasury yields signal higher future price inflation and central banks reluctant/slow to raise rates resulting in negative real interest rates, a favorable environment for gold.
Good luck to all.
The next big trade will be to short US Treasuries once the long bond yields assuredly moves above 4.6% (currently 4.38%).
Looking back I can see why Bond King Bill Gross and PIMCO is short US Treasuries. (He was, however early) Jim Rogers also recently came out to say he may be joining in the short camp soon. (I found Jim Rogers to be unassumingly a good market timer, although he publicly said he was bad at it)
Apple, the largest (>12%) component of NASDAQ 100, the leading US stock market index has also broken out of its falling minor trendline and is currently testing fibonacci 38.2% retracement. A pullback at this stage is likely. However the overall volume trend still bearishly supports a head and shoulders pattern with the falling red support line acting as its neckline. Unless it could break out of its falling resistance rail on convincing volume, the overall momentum tilts the market outlook slightly to the bears.